The Signal: A Change Agent

The Market

A single event will rarely dominate this section. But this event overshadowed the market commentary. We’re talking of course about Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, building an ownership stake in Twitter. The disclosure Monday led to the social network’s shares’ best day in history, jumping 27%. The stock price is now back to where it was in November of last year following a sluggish start in 2022. But the drama didn’t end there.

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Snapback

Snap, the Snapchat parent, jumped 5% Monday in sympathy. Meta Platforms also rose, helping broader stock indexes rise on the day. In fact, despite the majority of stocks in the S&P 500 falling Monday, the broader index rose thanks to the largest companies outperforming. Eight of the largest 10 companies were in the green Monday. And the knock-on impacts didn’t end in stocks. 

Dogecoin, a memecoin often touted by Musk — sometimes tongue in cheek despite being accepted as payment at Tesla charging stations –  recorded back-to-back gains to start the week, and was the top coin by trading activity as measured by Domain Money’s Signal**. The reason? Speculation that Musk could push Twitter to open the platform to crypto payments for advertising or otherwise – perhaps even dogecoin. 

Dogecoin’s bounce helped erase some of the losses from last Thursday when the EU Parliament advanced legislation that would place additional requirements on how exchanges interact with crypto wallets. Though not yet finalized, the move would make it more complicated for exchanges to transact with wallets that are not stored with a financial institution or credit service, as information about the off-exchange wallet, including identifying information about the holder, would be required – effectively a shot across the bow of anonymity in crypto. Many cryptos, like Bitcoin and Ethereum have failed to regain the levels seen before this legislation was moved forward. The legislation, however, has a few more hurdles and would be months away from implementation.

Read About Fundamentals of Crypto

The Data

Peas in a Pod

Find below a select timeline associated with the Twitter/Elon Musk relationship, and how they have embraced the usage of social media. Of note: Twitter’s recent interesting (or coincidental?) presumed joke about an “edit button” (a widely requested feature for years) after supposedly speaking with Musk for “weeks.” Twitter in a late Tuesday post claimed they'd been working on the button since last year. 

Play by Play

  1. April 1 (Fools day), 2015: Tesla April fool’s joke that it was launching a “Model W” - for wristwatch - shares jumped

  2. April 1 2018: Elon Musk’s April Fool’s joke that Tesla was “bankrupt”

  3. Sept. 2018: Elon Musk charged by the SEC with misleading the public when he tweeted in August that his company may be taken private. He agreed to run further communications by company lawyers. 

  4. April 1 2019: Twitter tweets “truth or dare.”

  5. April 1 2020: Twitter tweets “It’s not march”

  6. April 1 2021: Twitter pokes fun at April fools jokes

  7. November 2021: Musk asks his followers if he should sell some shares of Tesla (then proceeds to do so)

  8. March 14, 2022: The date Musk started to acquire Twitter shares, according to the regulatory filing

  9. March 25, 26 2022 : Musk asks his Twitter followers if Twitter adheres to free speech and whether a new platform is needed

  10. April 1 (Fools day), 2022: Twitter says it is working on an edit button

  11. April 4, 2022, Musk discloses stake in Twitter, becoming largest shareholder

  12. April 4 2022: Musk asks followers if they want an edit button for tweets

  13. April 4, 2022: Twitter CEO asks the public to vote carefully on Musk’s poll as the consequences are “important”

  14. April 5, 2022: Musk is named to Twitter’s Board of Directors

  15. April 5, 2022: Twitter CEO confirms Board appointment for Musk, noting the value Musk would bring to the board following discussions “in recent weeks.” 

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